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Hope for Latin America

by Alejandro Bermudez 

"Latinobarómetro" is a non- profit organization based in Santiago, Chile, which collects data on a yearly basis to spot trends of all types in Latin America.

The recently released 2009 Latinobarómetro reports that, despite a tough year for democracy in the region, support for democracy in Latin America is at its highest level since the late ‘90s.
According to the survey, which was carried out in 18 Latin American countries, those who believe that democracy is preferable to any other system of government represent 59% of those surveyed.

For Americans, both the question and the results would be alarming. But in order to understand them, a few key historical elements must be taken into account.

First, during the ‘70s most of the local dictatorships were what Latinos would call “dictablanda,”  as opposed to “dictadura.” The replacement of “dura” with “blanda” is a play on words, which when translated respectively, speaks of the replacement of “tough” dictatorships for “soft” ones.
In other words, they were more of an all-providing government that left no room for the political responsibilities of citizens, not the image commonly depicted by Hollywood of the brutal banana republic regime.

I still remember our own “dictablanda” in Peru. General Juan Velasco was ruling the country during my school years. As a consequence, the most political we became was when we discussed the various imported products that were available to buy and how hard it was to buy American jeans or American sports shoes. There was simply no political discussion because there were no political parties or political alternatives. Our life revolved around the naiveté of soccer, girls and having a fun time.

Second, the return of democracy during the ‘80s was exciting and awoke a generation to lively political debate. But, by the beginning of the ‘90s, the promised land of democracy showed not to be so promising: corruption, hyper-inflation and the crisis of the rule of law made many Latin Americans re-think the “onions and meat” they had before crossing the political Red Sea.

In the mid ‘90s, Latinobarómetro registered democracy’s surprisingly low popularity level in the region, with less than 50%  supporting it in almost half of the region's countries and only a weak 52% supporting it overall.  

Democracy in Latin America reached a new high in its popularity in the late ‘90s when the region’s economic crisis seemed to recede and when, after surviving the harsh years of hyper-inflation in Argentina, Bolivia, Peru and Ecuador, in addition to terrorism in Peru, Colombia and Guatemala, democracy proved that it was in the region to stay.

The beginning of the 21st century brought bad news for democracy in the region. A traditional coup, as Peruvian President Alberto Fujimori quickly learned, was impossible in the region.
But, along came Hugo Chavez in Venezuela, showing that, if you ride on a populist message and massive government spending, it will not be long before you can change the Constitution and get hold of almost all means of power, turning democracy into a travesty.

The model has been successfully, followed in the region by Evo Morales in Bolivia  -- massively reelected late this year under the new rules he set for the game --  and Rafael Correa in Ecuador, who was similarly reelected this year.

It is precisely in this scenario that Latinobarómetro finds that among the more than 19,000  Latin Americans surveyed, democracy is supported explicitly by 59%, while a significant 76% supports it "implicitly" -- that is to say, acknowledging  that democracy has shortcomings but is still better than any kind of dictatorship, "blanda" or "dura." 

Anybody who travels around Latin America these days can see that 59% approval rating for democracy is not only a promising figure, but it is even more significant than what the same figure meant in the late ‘90s.  In fact, support for democracy is strongest in Chavez’s Venezuela at 85%, and Morales’ Bolivia at 78%.

Most importantly, the Latin American democratic experience is even more promising elsewhere in the region.

Peru's Alan Garcia, for example, has managed to keep a booming economy running, showing a working, non-populist, U.S.-friendly political alternative to his neighbors in Ecuador and Bolivia.

Colombian president Alvaro Uribe is even a more impressive example. He is finishing his term surfing a wave of popularity by applying a successful tough hand against the drug cartel-leftist guerrilla axis and maintaining a stable economy despite the global economic downturn.
Uribe is currently so popular in Colombia that a significant number of the population is asking him to call for a referendum and allow for his reelection.

Chile is also on the verge of making a historical change:  a conservative self-made billionaire businessman, Sebastián Piñera, could become the first right-of-center president to rule the country. The country’s been run by the same center-left coalition over the past 20 years, ever since the end of Augusto Pinochet’s dictatorship.

Likewise, next year Porfirio Lobo will take office as the center-right elected president of Honduras, bringing the country to normality after this year’s coup and successfully killing in Central America any attempt to imitate Chavez.

2010 will certainly not be a boring year for democracy in Latin America. Latinobarómetro rightly reflects reasons for optimism…at last.

 

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(The views expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of Headline Bistro or the Knights of Columbus.)